In this paper we estimate a dominant firm-competitive fringe model for the crude oil market using quarterly data on oil prices for the 1986-2009 period. All the estimated structural parameters have the expected sign and ...

We present a model that illustrates the close relationship between the possibility of a currency crisis and the amount of private-sector debt within a four-stage sequential game framework. The agents are the government and ...

This paper analysis the appropriate exchange rate arrangement for Iceland, given its structural characteristics, on the one hand, and the need for a credible nominal anchor for monetary policy, on the other. It also discusses ...

We propose a novel Bayesian model combination approach where the combination weights depend on the past forecasting performance of the individual models entering the combination through a utility-based objective function. ...

Several countries face the choice between targeting inflation independently or entering a monetary union that targets inflation. The present paper extends the theory of optimum currency areas to deal with this choice. In ...

We suggest that overconfidence among policymakers explains why formal decision power over monetary policy is given to committees, while much of the real power to set policy remains with central bank chairmen. Overconfidence ...

This paper presents the MATLAB package DeCo (density combination) which is based on the paper by Billio, Casarin, Ravazzolo, and van Dijk (2013) where a constructive Bayesian approach is presented for combining predictive ...

I estimate the effect of lottery winnings on peers' debt accumulation using administrative data from Norway. I identify neighbors of lottery winners, and estimate an average debt response of 2.1 percent of the lottery ...

Old-age pension reform is on the agenda across the OECD, and a key target is to delay retirement. Most of these countries also have a disability insurance (DI) program accounting for a large share of labor force exits. ...

We aim to explain petro populism - the excessive use of oil revenues to buy political support. To reap the full gains of natural resource income politicians need to remain in office over time. Hence, even a purely rent-seeking ...