Blar i Arbeidsnotater / Working Papers på tittel

Viser treff 41-60 av 472

    • The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis 

      Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Palovita, Maritta (Working Paper;1/2021, Working paper, 2021)
      We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, ...

    • Bonds, currencies and expectational errors 

      Granziera, Eleonora; Sihvonen, Markus (Working Paper;3/2020, Working paper, 2020)
      We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning shortterm interest rates generate joint predictability patterns in bond and currency markets. Using our calibrated model, we quantify the effect of this channel ...

    • Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in Two-Speed Economies 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Papers;12/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors. We put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers. We ...

    • Bootstrapping the Likelihood Ratio Cointegration Test in Error Correction Models with Unknown Lag Order 

      Kascha, Christian; Trenkler, Carsten (Working Papers;12/2009, Working paper, 2009)
      We investigate the small-sample size and power properties of bootstrapped likelihood ratio systems cointegration tests via Monte Carlo simulations when the true lag order of the data generating process is unknown. A recursive ...

    • Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit 

      Anundsen, André K.; Hansen, Frank; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Kragh-Sørensen, Kasper (Working Papers;14/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      This paper exploits a quarterly panel data set for 16 OECD countries over the period 1975q1–2013q2 to explore the importance of house prices and credit in affecting the likelihood of a financial crisis. Estimating a set ...

    • Burying Libor 

      Klingler, Sven; Syrstad, Olav (Working Paper;13/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      We argue that the planned transition toward alternative benchmark rates gives reason to mourn Libor. Guided by a model in which banks and non-banks can lend to each other, subject to realistic regulatory constraints, we ...

    • Business Cycle Analysis and VARMA Models 

      Kascha, Christian; Mertens, Karel (Working Papers;5/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Can long-run identified structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) discriminate between competing models in practice? Several authors have suggested SVARs fail partly because they are finite-order approximations to ...

    • Business cycle narratives 

      Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working papers;3/2018, Working paper, 2018)
      This article quantifies the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe (euro area). We do so by first constructing daily business cycle indexes computed on the basis of the ...

    • Business Cycles in an Oil Economy: Lessons from Norway 

      Bergholt, Drago; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug (Working Papers;16/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      The recent oil price fall has created concern among policy makers regarding the consequences of terms of trade shocks for resource-rich countries. This concern is not a minor one – the world's commodity exporters combined ...

    • Central Banks Under German Rule During World War II: The Case of Norway 

      Espeli, Harald (Working Papers;2/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      Until the German invasion of Norway 9 April 1940 the Norwegian central bank had been one of the most independent in Western Europe. This article investigates the agency of the Norwegian central bank during the German ...

    • Central Clearing and Risk Transformation 

      Cont, Rama (Working Papers;3/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      The clearing of over-the-counter transactions through central counterparties (CCPs), one of the pillars of financial reform following the crisis of 2007-2008, has promoted CCPs as key elements of the new global financial ...

    • Changing Supply Elasticities and Regional Housing Booms 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Albuquerque, Bruno; Anundsen, André (Working Paper;8/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      Recent developments in US house prices mirror those of the 1996-2006 boom, but the recovery in construction activity has been weak. Using data for 254 US metropolitan areas, we show hat housing supply elasticities have ...

    • Climate risk and commodity currencies 

      Kapfhammer, Felix; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Working Paper;18/2020, Working paper, 2020)
      The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We ...

    • Collateral and Repeated Lending 

      Karapetyan, Artashes; Stacescu, Bogdan (Working Papers;18/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      Lending is often associated with significant asymmetric information issues between suppliers of funds and their potential borrowers. Banks can screen their borrowers, or can require them to post collateral in order to ...

    • Collateral Damaged? Priority Structure, Credit Supply, and Firm Performance 

      Cerqueiro, Geraldo; Ongena, Steven; Roszbach, Kasper (Working Paper;9/2019, Working paper, 2019)
      A unique legal reform in 2004 in Sweden redistributed collateral rights from banks holding floating liens to unsecured creditors without changing the value of assets on firms’ balance sheets. Using a country-wide panel of ...

    • Collective Economic Decisions and the Discursive Dilemma 

      Claussen, Carl Andreas; Røisland, Øistein (Working Papers;3/2005, Working paper, 2005)
      Most economic decisions involve judgments. When decisions are taken collectively, various judgment aggregation problems may occur. Here we consider an aggregation problem called the discursive dilemma , which is characterized ...

    • Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions 

      Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Papers;4/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning ...

    • Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Herman K. (Working Papers;17/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and ...

    • Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities 

      Jore, Anne Sofie; Mitchell, James; Vahey, Shaun P. (Working Papers;1/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Clark and McCracken (2008) argue that combining real-time point forecasts from VARs of output, prices and interest rates improves point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain model instabilities. In this paper, we ...

    • Combining Inflation Density Forecasts 

      Kascha, Christian; Ravazzolo, Francesco (Working Papers;22/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      In this paper, we empirically evaluate competing approaches for combining inflation density forecasts in terms of Kullback-Leibler divergence. In particular, we apply a similar suite of models to four different data sets ...