Staff Memo: Nye registreringer
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House Prices and Household Consumption
(Staff Memo;11/2017, Working paper, 2018)Neither standard economic theory nor empirical studies provide an unequivocal answer to the question of the effect of changes in house prices on household consumption. Estimating this effect empirically is demanding because ... -
What Kind of Payments Settle in a Real Time Gross Settlement System?
(Staff Memo;2/2018, Working paper, 2018)Central bank settlement systems are vital for payment intermediation and have an important role in monetary policy and financial stability. Few analyses exist that explain the purpose behind the payments that are settled ... -
Estimates of the Neutral Rate of Interest in Norway
(Staff Memo;7/2018, Working paper, 2018)In this paper, we estimate the neutral real rate for the Norwegian economy using two different empirical models, a vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) and a State-Space (SS) model similar to ... -
Lending Growth, Non-Performing Loans and Loan Losses
(Staff Memo;8/2018, Working paper, 2018)At macro level, large loan losses for banks have often been preceded by periods of high lending growth. We analyse at bank level whether high loan growth also leads to more problem loans later on. The analysis is carried ... -
En internasjonal sammenligning av norsk banksektor
(Staff Memo;9/2018, Working paper, 2018)Bankene dominerer den finansielle sektoren i Norge. Hvor stor er norsk banksektor sammenlignet med banksektorene i andre land? Vi finner at Norge har en nokså liten banksektor i forhold til BNP sammenlignet med de andre ... -
Model Estimates of the Output Gap
(Staff Memo;4/2018, Working paper, 2018)This paper documents a set of models used by Norges Bank in estimating the output gap. The models take into account developments in key cyclical indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, wage growth, investment, ... -
Teknologiutvikling og klimatiltak kan påvirke bankenes kredittrisiko
(Staff Memo;6/2018, Working paper, 2018)Klimarisiko kan ha betydning for finansiell stabilitet. For Norge kan en stor oljesektor innebære en særegen risiko knyttet til svakere framtidig oljeetterspørsel. Usikkerhet om framtidig klimaregulering og teknologiutvikling ... -
The Effect of Higher Interest Rates on Household Disposable Income and Consumption - a Static Analysis of the Cash-Flow Channel
(Staff Memo;3/2018, Working paper, 2018)Household debt in Norway has risen substantially over the past 15-20 years relative to both disposable income and bank deposits. An increase in interest rates will therefore reduce disposable income for Norwegian households ... -
Virkningen av økt rente på husholdningenes disponible inntekter og konsum - en statisk analyse av kontantstrømkanalen
(Staff Memo;3/2018, Working paper, 2018)Gjelden i norske husholdninger har økt betydelig de siste 15-20 årene både i forhold til utviklingen i disponible inntekter og i forhold til bankinnskudd. En renteøkning vil derfor redusere norske husholdningers disponible ... -
Modellberegninger av produksjonsgapet
(Staff Memo;4/2018, Working paper, 2018)I denne artikkelen dokumenteres et sett av modeller som Norges Bank benytter i vurderingen av produksjonsgapet. Modellene tar hensyn til utviklingen i sentrale konjunkturindikatorer som BNP, arbeidsledighet, inflasjon, ... -
Virkninger av pengemarkedspåslag på kronekursen
(Staff Memo;5/2018, Working paper, 2018)Flere studier viser at endringer i rentedifferansen mot utlandet påvirker kronekursen. Det er vanlig å måle rentedifferansen mot utlandet med forskjellen i pengemarkedsrenter på tvers av land. Pengemarkedsrenter kan ... -
Driving Forces Behind European Commercial Real Estate Prices Prior to a Sharp Fall in Prices
(Staff Memo;1/2018, Working paper, 2018)What factors have driven commercial real estate (CRE) prices upwards prior to a sharp fall in prices? We study this question by identifying turning points in CRE for a dataset covering the prime office segment in 58 cities ... -
The Neutral Real Interest Rate
(Staff Memo;1/2005, Working paper, 2005)The topic for this paper is the so called neutral real interest rate. This is frequently defined as the level of the real interest rate consistent with stable inflation and production equal to potential production. Hence ... -
How to Treat the Exchange Rate Assumption for an Inflation Targeting Regime
(Staff Memo;4/2005, Working paper, 2005)"The topic I am going to discuss here is how to treat the exchange rate assumption when making projections under an inflation targeting regime. The central bank of Norway made the official change to inflation targeting in ... -
Strategisk allokering i valutareservene
(Staff Memo;1/2004, Working paper, 2004)Sentralbanksjefens stab for kapitalforvaltning (SSK) foretar med jevne mellomrom en gjennomgang av grunnlaget for den investeringsstrategien som er valgt for valutareservene. Analysene i dette notatet er basert på data ... -
Norwegian Business Cycles 1982-2003
(Staff Memo;2/2005, Working paper, 2005)This paper analyses stylised facts regarding business cycles in Norway. We examine the empirical relationships between the aggregate business cycle and the cyclical components of individual macroeconomic time series. The ... -
Norges Banks regionale nettverk
(Staff Memo;9/2005, Working paper, 2005)Hovedformålet med det regionale nettverket er å få oppdatert informasjon om den økonomiske situasjonen og utsiktene fremover gjennom direkte kontakt med bedrifter. Regelmessige samtaler med lokale kontakter fra norsk ... -
Policy-Making and Models at Norges Bank
(Staff Memo;5/2005, Working paper, 2005)[...] Norges Bank’s macro models have played a key role in forecasting work over many years. Inflation targeting probably places greater demands on our understanding of the way the economy functions than earlier regimes, ... -
A Small, Calibrated Macromodel to Support Inflation Targeting at Norges Bank
(Staff Memo;3/2004, Working paper, 2004)This note outlines a small, calibrated macromodel that can be used to support inflation targeting at Norges Bank. The model provides a stylised representation of the key flows in the macro economy, with a particular emphasis ... -
When Does an Interest Rate Path “Look Good”? Criteria for an Appropriate Future Interest Rate Path – a Practician’s Approach
(Staff Memo;6/2005, Working paper, 2005)When professor Lars E. O. Svensson (Princeton University) visited Norges Bank’s conference on monetary policy in 2004, he suggested we should “find an instrument-rate path such that projections of inflation and output gap ...