Staff Memo: Nye registreringer
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How to assess the systemic risk buffer for banks
(Staff Memo;11/2019, Working paper, 2019)Since 2013, Norwegian banks have been required to hold a systemic risk buffer (SyRB) of 3 percent. The reason for the buffer is to address structural vulnerabilities in the economy and the financial system. The Ministry ... -
Hvordan vurdere systemrisikobufferen for bankene?
(Staff Memo;11/2019, Working paper, 2019)Siden 2013 har det vært krav om at norske banker skal holde en systemrisikobuffer på tre prosent. Kravet begrunnes med strukturelle sårbarheter i økonomien og finanssystemet. Finansdepartementet har foreslått å øke ... -
Hvor mye ren kjernekapital må bankene sette av ved utlån til næringseiendom?
(Staff Memo;10/2019, Working paper, 2019)Finansdepartementet har foreslått et midlertidig minstekrav for hvor mye ren kjernekapital de største bankene må sette av bak norske næringseiendomslån. Næringseiendom er den næringen som har påført bankene størst tap i ... -
How much CET1 capital must banks set aside for commercial real estate exposures?
(Staff Memo;10/2019, Working paper, 2019)The Ministry of Finance has proposed a temporary capital requirement (risk weight floor) for commercial real estate (CRE) exposures in Norway, applicable to the largest banks. CRE is the sector where banks have historically ... -
How does IFRS 9 affect banks’ impairment recognition in bad times?
(Staff Memo;9/2019, Working paper, 2019)IFRS 9 has changed the way banks recognise credit losses. Under IFRS 9, credit impairment shall be based on more forward-looking assessments by including recognition of expected credit losses. The purpose of this memo is ... -
Liquidity indicators for the Norwegian government bond market
(Staff Memo;8/2019, Working paper, 2019)An objective of Norges Bank Government Debt Management is to meet the government’s borrowing requirement at the lowest possible cost. At the same time, Government Debt Management shall seek to maintain a yield curve out ... -
The Power of Forward Guidance in NEMO
(Staff Memo;7/2019, Working paper, 2019)This staff memo revisits the power of forward guidance with particular emphasis on the effectiveness of anticipated policy in Norges Bank’s main policy model NEMO. First we explain, within the context of a simple toy model, ... -
How Much of a Tailwind Have We Had from the Weaker Krone?
(Staff Memo;6/2019, Working paper, 2019)It is usual to assume that a weaker currency will stimulate exports and improve the balance of trade. Despite the krone’s depreciation in recent years, however, exports have grown little and the non-oil trade deficit has ... -
Utviklingen i husholdningenes kjøpekraft i boligmarkedet
(Staff Memo;4/2019, Working paper, 2019)Husholdningenes kjøpekraft i boligmarkedet kan ha betydning for etterspørselen etter bolig. Vi analyserer kjøpekraft i boligmarkedet ved å sammenstille fordelingen av prisen på omsatte boliger med fordelingen av hvor ... -
En forbedret sammensatt systemisk stressindikator (CISS) for Norge
(Staff Memo;3/2019, Working paper, 2019)Norges Banks råd om motsyklisk kapitalbuffer baseres på et bredt sett av kvalitativ og kvantitativ informasjon. Det europeiske systemrisikorådet trekker frem at utviklingen i en generell indikator for systemisk stress i ... -
Navigating with NEMO
(Staff Memo;5/2019, Working paper, 2019)This paper describes NEMO, the main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model used at Norges Bank for monetary policy analysis and forecasting. NEMO has been used to identify the sources of business cycle fluctuations ... -
Nibor, Libor and Euribor – all IBORs, but different
(Staff Memo;2/2019, Working paper, 2019)This memo takes a closer look at what lays behind different benchmark interest rates. Particular emphasis is put on how the different practices for quotation can explain why Nibor’s risk premium has on average been higher ... -
A Macroprudential Stress Testing Framework
(Staff Memo;1/2019, Working paper, 2019)We present a macroprudential stress testing framework. While traditional stress testing assesses the level of banks’ capital adequacy relative to regulatory requirements through a hypothetical crisis, macroprudential stress ... -
Et rammeverk for makrotilsynsstresstester
(Staff Memo;1/2019, Working paper, 2019)Vi presenterer et rammeverk for makrotilsynsstresstester. Mens tradisjonelle stresstester vurderer nivået på bankenes kapitaldekning opp mot regulatoriske krav gjennom en tenkt krise, handler makrotilsynsstresstester om å ... -
Bank Lending to the Commercial Real Estate Sector - a Source of Systemic Risk?
(Staff Memo;11/2018, Working paper, 2018)Banks' commercial real estate loans account for almost half of banks' total loans to non-financial enterprises. Losses on these loans are normally low in good times, but they have proved to be one of the largest sources ... -
Residential Construction and Household Formation
(Staff Memo;12/2018, Working paper, 2018)Population growth in Norway over the past 10-15 years has been strong, while residential construction activity has been fairly low. At the same time, household size continues to decline. The increase in the number of ... -
Targeted Countercyclical Capital Buffers
(Staff Memo;13/2018, Working paper, 2018)This paper investigates the effect of broad-based versus sectoral capital requirements using a dynamic model of bank behaviour. We study the problem facing banks when determining their dividend policy and portfolio of ... -
Boligbygging og husholdningsvekst
(Staff Memo;12/2018, Working paper, 2018)De siste 10-15 årene har befolkningsveksten i Norge vært sterk, mens boligbyggingen har vært nokså lav. Samtidig bor folk i stadig mindre husholdninger. Økningen i antall husholdninger har vært høyere enn økningen i antall ... -
Bankenes utlån til næringseiendom – en kilde til systemrisiko?
(Staff Memo;11/2018, Working paper, 2018)Utlån til næringseiendom utgjør nesten halvparten av bankenes utlån til ikke- finansielle foretak. Disse lånene har normalt lave tap i gode tider, men har vist seg som en av de største kildene til tap i bankene under ... -
The Phillips Curve and Beyond - Why Has Wage Growth Been so Low?
(Staff Memo;10/2018, Working paper, 2018)In this paper, we estimate various dynamic wage equations for mainland Norway. Our starting point is a standard Phillips curve. We then expand on our baseline specification by adding explanatory variables suggested by ...