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The Influence of the Taylor Rule on US Monetary Policy
(Working Papers;4/2013, Working paper, 2013)We analyze the influence of the Taylor rule on US monetary policy by estimating the policy preferences of the Fed within a DSGE framework. The policy preferences are represented by a standard loss function, extended with ... -
The Information Content of Market Liquidity: An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange?
(Working Papers;26/2009, Working paper, 2009)We investigate the information content of aggregate stock market liquidity and ask whether it may be a useful realtime indicator, both for financial stress, and real economic activity in Norway. We describe the development ... -
The International Monetary System, 1844-1870: Arbitrage, Efficiency, Liquidity
(Working Papers;23/2010, Working paper, 2010)This paper analyses the architecture of the international monetary system which preceded the international gold standard (1844-1870). It builds on a newly-created database made up of more than 100,000 weekly observations ... -
The Long-Run Exchange Rate for NOK: A BEER Approach
(Working Papers;19/2010, Working paper, 2010)This paper investigates a long-run relation for the trade weighted NOK exchange rate. I find that the NOK Trade Weighted Index (TWI) cointegrates with the real oil price, the price differential and the real interest ... -
The Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Autoregressive Models with Alternative Specifications of Time-Varying Volatility
(Working Papers;9/2012, Working paper, 2012)This paper compares alternative models of time-varying macroeconomic volatility on the basis of the accuracy of point and density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. In this analysis, we consider both Bayesian autoregressive ... -
The Market Impact and Timing of Open Market Share Repurchases in Norway
(Working Papers;8/2004, Working paper, 2004)This paper examines a detailed dataset on open market repurchase announcements and actual repurchases conducted by Norwegian firms during the period 1998-2001. Firms that announce a repurchase plan experience a positive ... -
The Market Microstructure Approach to Foreign Exchange: Looking Back and Looking Forward
(Working Papers;12/2013, Working paper, 2013)Research on foreign exchange market microstructure stresses the importance of order flow, heterogeneity among agents, and private information as crucial determinants of short-run exchange rate dynamics. Microstructure ... -
The Natural Real Interest Rate and the Output Gap in the Euro Area: A Joint Estimation
(Working Papers;14/2005, Working paper, 2005)The notion of a natural real rate of interest, due to Wicksell (1936), is widely used in current central bank research. The idea is that there exists a level at which the real interest rate would be compatible with output ... -
The Origins of a Paper Money Economy - the Case of Norway
(Working Papers;25/2009, Working paper, 2009)This article sketches the origins of paper money in Norway back to the last half of the 18th century and asks why there was no circulation of full-bodied coins even after notes had become convertible into silver at par in ... -
The Origins of Foreign Exchange Policy: The National Bank of Belgium and the Quest for Monetary Independence in the 1850s
(Working Papers;22/2010, Working paper, 2010)Can the central bank of a small open economy be mandated with the maintenance of both fixed exchange rates and monetary independence, and still succeed in the long term? Looking at a pioneering experiment put in place by ... -
The Ownership Structure of Repurchasing Firms
(Working Papers;7/2004, Working paper, 2004)This paper provides an examination of the ownership structure in Norwegian firms that announced repurchase plans during the period 1999 through 2001, as well as for groups of these firms conditional on whether they actually ... -
The Performance of Inflation Forecast Feedback Rules in Small Open Economies
(Working Papers;11/2000, Working paper, 2000)This paper examines the performance of inflation forecast feedback rules in a two-sector, calibrated model of the U.K. economy. Under such rules, the interest rate responds to the deviation of the unchanged-interest-rate ... -
The Political Economy of Fiscal Deficits and Government Production
(Working Papers;7/2009, Working paper, 2009)This paper analyzes a framework where policymakers decide how to spend public resources on physical capital and labor in order to produce two public goods. Candidate policymakers disagree about which goods to produce, and ... -
The Power of Weather. Some Empirical Evidence on Predicting Day-Ahead Power Prices Through Weather Forecasts
(Working Papers;8/2008, Working paper, 2008)This paper examines the predictive power of weather for electricity prices in day-ahead markets in real time. We find that next-day weather forecasts improve the forecast accuracy of day-ahead electricity prices substantially, ... -
The Price Puzzle: Mixing the Temporary and Permanent Monetary Policy Shocks
(Working Papers;18/2008, Working paper, 2008)We argue that the correct identification of monetary policy shocks in a vector autoregression requires that the identification scheme distinguishes between permanent and transitory monetary policy shocks. The permanent ... -
The Promise and Performance of the Federal Reserve as Lender of Last Resort 1914-1933
(Working Papers;1/2011, Working paper, 2011)This paper examines the origins and early performance of the Federal Reserve as lender of last resort. The Fed was established to overcome the problems of the National Banking era, in particular an “inelastic” currency and ... -
The R Package Mitisem: Efficient and Robust Simulation Procedures for Bayesian Inference
(Working Papers;10/2017, Working paper, 2017)This paper presents the R package MitISEM (mixture of t by importance sampling weighted expectation maximization) which provides an automatic and flexible two-stage method to approximate a non-elliptical target density ... -
The Relation Between Banks' Funding Costs, Retail Rates and Loan Volumes: An Analysis of Norwegian Bank Micro Data
(Working Papers;17/2012, Working paper, 2012)We use a dynamic factor model and a detailed panel data set for six Norwegian bank groups to analyze i) how funding costs affect retail loan rates and ii) how retail rate differences between banks affect market shares. The ... -
The Relationship Between Bankruptcy Risk and Growth for Non-Listed Firms
(Working Papers;31/2010, Working paper, 2010)We investigate the relationship between bankruptcy risk and expected future sales growth for Norwegian non-listed firms for the period 1988-2007. We find that firms with high bankruptcy risk also have high expected future ... -
The Risk Components of Liquidity
(Working Papers;3/2008, Working paper, 2008)Does liquidity risk differ depending on our choice of liquidity proxy? Unlike literature that considers common liquidity variation, we focus on identifying different components of liquidity, statistically and economically, ...