We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier ...

This paper quantifies the determinants of heterogeneity in R&D investment and its implications for growth. Using a panel of Norwegian manufacturing firms we document a negative correlation between R&D intensity and firm ...

One of the core functions of a central bank is to provide liquidity insurance, often termed the lender of last resort (LLR) function. During and after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2007-09 central banks’ role as ...

This paper examines how central banks respond to supply-side shocks and investigates the trade-offs they face in stabilizing inflation and output. To do so we develop a dual external instrument proxy structural vector ...

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced form Phillips curve forecasts, i.e., inflation forecasts using activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips curve-type model that results from averaging ...

This staff memo documents a detailed analysis of the payment remark database to better understand whether the recent increase in payment remarks signals an impending wave of bankruptcies. We find that the number of ...

Does a "one model fits all" approach apply to the econometric modeling of regional house price determination? To answer this question, we utilize a panel of 100 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas over the period 1980q1-2010q2. ...